The origins and reasons for the 1918 pandemic are contested in Academia and in medical circles. In those years the severity and the numbers related to the outbreak was hidden from the public for military and political reasons. Today the disagreement on the origins and treatment is part of a trade war and political war between opposing scientists. A definitive cure was not found for the 1918 pandemic and for the 2019 outbreak as of yet. This makes sanitation, prevention and social distancing critical in early stages for all pandemics.
Current study numbers affirm positive cases for who went under testing procedures but not for all the people infected in “dormant” stages. On the other end, deaths that test positive don’t imply that the mortality was exclusively due to the Virus.
On top of that, governments don’t release information before double checking and measuring the impact on the public that might overcrowd hospitals and the economy. In other words, counting and data is misleading in both ways at the early stages of an outbreak.
Being better informed is one way of avoiding panic. The mortality ratio is far below as compared with other dangerous known pathogens. Today as opposed to the past, government , pharmas and medical community are better equipped with research facilities and communication online take care of prevention and healing.
Every medicine that is found helps in mitigating the effects of a specific kind of a pathogen, but it is not a guarantee that a new infection may not occur again later on. A second event may occur later on either with the same virus or mutated variant or even another virus or microorganism that takes advantage of a new “loophole” created by a vaccine. This is one of the reasons the FDA doesn’t approve promising medications before testing side effects. It is suffice to look at a Diamond Princess case and other cases , where a passenger tested positive after “recovering ” from the virus. This indicates that there might be another “Trojan horse” hidden from current testing and healing procedures.
When a cluster of cases is discovered no one knows exactly where it comes from or how long it was in the incubation started, Each time a “patient zero” is discovered , scientists discover that it might have been contracted from another “patient zero”. A discovery of one strain doesn’t mean that there aren’t other variants affecting the host in other silent ways. During the 1918 pandemic, people who were supposedly cured, suddenly got infected again for what was thought to be the same pathogen. In some cases the second infection made that patient enter a 24 hour deadly deteriorating cycle. Research was avoided in order to prevent another contagious event or due to the overwhelming cases that hospitals were dealing with.
The “Tunnel Warfare” theory tries to respond to the anomaly that in early stages of 1918 outbreaks, it took days and weeks for the disease to evolve to critical situation. People who contracted a second time, either recovered fast or entered a faster and more dangerous deterioration cycle. The second cycle occurred when returning to barracks, visiting hospitals for treatment or as staffers or merely as family companions. This might imply that the second event might be with another variant that might been working with a “dormant” variant already in the host from a previous event.
This doesn’t mean necessarily that the virus mutated drastically. It means that the patient wasn’t aware that another “softening” virus (or various pathogens) was already clearing the defense barriers for “his big brother”. The softening virus may have been contracted weeks before, digging earth-works slowly and silently (tunnel excavation as known in WWI or Cold Mountain in the Civil War) preparing for the critical final charge.
The “Tunnel Warfare” theory states that there is more then one contagious event. The first contagious events occur unnoticed days or weeks before a second or third contagious event of a “complementary virus”. The first softening is done either by “weaker scouting strain” or another kind of a virus. In this case different pathogens attack like a wolfpacks where the first contingent prepares the ground for the second attack. This might explain why chronic disease or nursing home members are more likely to suffer the most.
Historians are not sure if the 1918 Pandemic killed 100 million or 17 Million people, Even for the minimalist evaluation, these staggering figures indicate that more people were killed by a flu compared to conventional warfare in that decade. During the Spring offensive and the counterattack the borders moved in hectic way in France and armies mingled with new populations, corps, prisoners and even food and animals that were transferring infections in hotbeds like ships or battlegrounds and trenches. Those places had live and dead corps that were exposed to chemical and possibly biological warfare along with contagious unhurried human discharges which were exposed to live carriers like rodents, insects or other humans.
The American Expedition Army in 1918 and 1919 was one of the crucial agents of the outbreak between continents. Military confinement in barracks, trenches or transportation, especially in overcrowded ships, serve as “virus outbreak incubation” platforms. During the transit people become carriers without even knowing it.
They might come across each other and create “patients zeros” for the other towns and hospitals later on. It occurred on the way to a military mission, medical relief or return to a community or some social gathering or military parade (like the ones made to sell bonds). Hospitals, transportation hubs and other crowded places become contagious hotbeds that increase exponentially the spreading of a pandemic.
The implication of the cover-up of the the 1918 is felt today. If more researches and medical professionals would have been aware or had access to information in the critical time more medicine, research, sanitation and prevention procedures might have been in place today. At the peaks of the waves of the 1918 flu, the number of fast evolving cases increased. This supports the “Virus Tunnel Warfare” theory .
Whenever authorities thought that the pandemic was over, another wave appeared. Exact numbers on variants, mutation and incubation and the length are not available as of yet. In some cases mutations may be for the good since a strain evolves to less dangerous is taking the place of more dangerous strain. San Francisco was one of the major cities that managed to contain the Pandemic in wave number two. But just when they authorities opened the city and commerce a major flu devastated the city.
Immune or non immune people or animals are conduits of viruses to non immune people without knowing it. Workplaces, shopping malls, army units, ports, transportation hubs, trains, ships. planes are outbreak chambers since people share air, water and food in a confined area and in some cases with poor ventilation or sanitation. Wars and trade wars are hotbeds for virus outbreaks. The anatomy of an outbreak includes various cycles with a final diminishing cycle that might occur after months or years.
The amount of danger of virus mutation and contagiousness gets exponentially higher as more people are close to each other. and share space, food or water.
If we are aware of the possibility that there is not only one kind of a pathogen in the COVID-19 outbreak (or other pandemic), then our researchers can create better testing kits and come out with the right cures and prevention measures. This way, we can avoid the situation of 1918 were unexpected waves reappeared.
Related Links and Resources
WWI Intertwined with The 1918 Pandemic
Wuhan Epicentre Chronicles
Wuhan Strategic Location
Downplaying the Outbreak
Premature Decision Making during Initial Cycles
Lack for Sanitation in Wet Markets
Lessons from the 1918 Pandemic